In May 2026, Apex Capital Partners surveyed 1,733 Americans earning over $200,000 per year and found that 61% would consider leaving the United States within the next five years. The reason cited most often was not politics. It was cost of living and taxes — named by 68% of those open to emigrating, versus 54% who cited political climate. If you want to understand why wealthy Americans are leaving the United States 2026, the data gives you a clear answer: it is a financial calculation, not an ideological one. And the math is shifting fast.
What the APEX Capital Survey Actually Shows
The Apex Capital Partners survey, released June 18, 2026, polled 1,733 Americans with household incomes above $200,000. The sample was equally weighted across party lines — right, left, and center — and by gender. The results were striking on multiple fronts:
- 61% would consider leaving within five years
- 68% cite cost of living and taxes as their primary reason — the top driver
- 54% cite political climate — important, but ranked second
- 63% are actively considering asset diversification outside U.S. markets
- 75% express concern about the U.S. future in relation to the Iran War
- 42% rate the U.S. economy as weak or very weak
The political framing that dominates media coverage of American emigration misses the central driver. Cost of living outranked political climate by 14 percentage points. That gap matters. It means the exit impulse is not concentrated among partisans reacting to an election cycle — it is spread evenly across the political spectrum because the cost problem hits everyone equally. Apex Capital founder Nuri Katz noted in a Fortune interview: “In all honesty, most of our clients used to be related to politics. But we are seeing clients from both sides of the aisle now.”
US Net Migration Went Negative — For the First Time Since the Great Depression
The survey data arrives against a backdrop that makes it feel less like a sentiment shift and more like a structural one. In 2025, the United States recorded net negative migration for the first time since the 1930s. According to analysis by the Brookings Institution reported in the Washington Post, the U.S. saw a net outflow of between 10,000 and 295,000 people last year — a range driven by the difficulty of measuring all outbound flows. The Brookings researchers expect continued negative net migration in 2026. The Wall Street Journal confirmed the finding in February 2026, noting that ordinary American citizens — not just deportees or visa holders — are departing in unprecedented numbers.
This US negative net migration 2025 2026 trend is happening alongside a record year for global millionaire migration. The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2026 projects 165,000 millionaires will relocate internationally this year, up from 142,000 in 2025 — the highest number ever recorded. Applications from U.S. nationals for foreign residency and citizenship programs doubled in 2025 compared to the previous year and remain elevated in 2026. Americans now represent over 30% of all investment migration applications processed by Henley & Partners globally.
Why High Net Worth Americans Are Leaving the USA: The Tax Math for a $300K Earner
To understand why high net worth Americans are leaving the USA — a pattern that qualifies as a genuine wave of high net worth Americans leaving USA — start with the numbers. A household earning $300,000 per year in California faces a combined federal and state marginal tax rate that can exceed 50% on dollars above certain thresholds. Federal income tax at the top bracket runs 37%. California adds another 13.3%. That is before payroll taxes, property taxes, and state-level taxes on investment income.
Relocate to a territorial tax jurisdiction — where taxes apply only to in-country income — and the math changes dramatically. Countries like Panama, Paraguay, Georgia, and several others tax only income sourced within their borders. A U.S. citizen living abroad and earning remotely can potentially exclude up to $126,500 in 2026 under the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE). Combined with the Foreign Housing Exclusion and careful structuring, a $300K earner could realistically reduce their effective tax burden by $40,000 to $80,000 annually — depending on state of previous residence, income mix, and destination. That is the range Apex Capital advisors typically cite for this income bracket. Note that U.S. citizens remain subject to U.S. federal tax on worldwide income regardless of where they live — proper planning with a cross-border tax attorney is essential.
The Cost-of-Living Gap: San Francisco vs. Lisbon vs. Medellin
The tax savings are only part of the equation. The cost-of-living delta compounds the savings considerably. According to LivingCost.org data, the cost of living in Lisbon runs about 53% less than San Francisco. A one-bedroom apartment in downtown San Francisco averages roughly $3,200 per month; the equivalent in central Lisbon runs closer to $1,400. Food, transit, and utilities follow a similar pattern.
| Monthly Expense | San Francisco | Lisbon | Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-BR Downtown Rent | $3,208 | $1,408 | ~$600 |
| Full monthly cost basket (1 person) | $4,115 | $1,926 | $1,032 |
| Mid-range dinner for two | $116 | $57 | $32 |
| Monthly transit pass | $94 | $47 | ~$30 |
An analysis by EveryCity.guide on the San Francisco-to-Lisbon move puts it directly: a resident running a $5,600 per month lifestyle in SF can run the same in central Lisbon for $2,300. The $3,300 monthly delta equals $39,600 in retained savings per year — and that is before accounting for tax reduction. Medellin, Colombia takes the cost differential even further, running approximately 77% cheaper than San Francisco in total monthly expenses, with a one-bedroom downtown apartment averaging around $600. Both cities rank among the top destinations for high earners in the Apex survey’s preferred regions: Europe at 42%, Caribbean at 16%, and South America at 10%.
What “Exit” Actually Looks Like: Second Citizenship Investment, Not Renunciation
Most of what appears in the millionaire migration report 2026 data is not renunciation — it is optionality. High earners seeking second citizenship investment routes are buying flexibility, not burning bridges. The most common vehicles fall into two categories:
Portugal Golden Visa
Portugal’s Golden Visa grants EU residency to non-EU investors. Following the suspension of the real estate route in October 2023, the primary pathway now runs through investment funds at a minimum of 500,000 euros, with a capital transfer route also available at the same threshold. The program requires just 7 days of physical presence per year on average and leads to full EU citizenship eligibility after 5 years. For a $300K earner, the Portugal Golden Visa offers Schengen travel freedom, access to Portugal’s national health system, and a path to an EU passport — all while maintaining U.S. citizenship. According to the 2026 Portugal Golden Visa guide, Americans remain among the top applicant nationalities.
Caribbean Citizenship by Investment Programs
Five Caribbean nations run active citizenship by investment (CBI) programs with 2026 investment thresholds starting at $200,000 for a single applicant on the donation route. According to a 2026 Caribbean CBI comparison by Mirabello Consultancy:
- Dominica: $200,000 (NDF donation), 136 visa-free countries, 4–6 month processing
- St. Kitts & Nevis: $250,000 (SISC donation), 152 visa-free countries, 45–60 day expedited processing available
- Grenada: $235,000, includes a U.S. E-2 investor visa treaty, 5–7 month processing
Caribbean citizenship does not affect U.S. tax obligations — U.S. citizens pay U.S. taxes on worldwide income regardless of what other passports they hold. But it provides an insurance policy: a second home country, visa-free access to additional markets, and the ability to establish residency in a low-tax jurisdiction. The Grenada program is notable for Americans because the E-2 treaty creates a two-way door — it is one of the few second citizenship routes that simultaneously opens a U.S. investor pathway for non-Americans, making it useful for entrepreneurs with international teams.
The Non-Wealthy Angle: If $200K Earners Feel Squeezed, What Does That Mean for $75K Earners?
Here is the underreported dimension of the Americans emigrating for cost of living story: the math is actually more compelling for middle-income earners, not less.
A household earning $75,000 in San Francisco is not wealthy. After federal income tax, California state tax, payroll taxes, and $3,200 per month rent for a modest apartment, disposable income is extremely tight. That same $75,000 income — carried remotely or earned from U.S.-sourced assets — goes dramatically further in Lisbon or Medellin, where the monthly cost basket for a single person runs $1,926 and $1,032 respectively. The Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, at $126,500 in 2026, covers the entire income of most middle-class earners, potentially eliminating federal income tax on wages earned while living abroad. The financial case for emigration at $75K is structurally stronger than at $300K, because a higher proportion of take-home pay goes directly to survival costs in high-cost American cities.
This is why the Gallup polling data is significant in its own right: by November 2025, one in five Americans overall — not just the wealthy — told Gallup they would like to move abroad permanently, according to WhereNext analysis of the 2026 migration data. Among Gen Z, that figure was 63%. The Apex survey finding that 61% of $200K earners are considering leaving is striking because it is three times the general population rate — but the underlying squeeze is felt across income brackets.
Financial Emigration in Practice: This Does Not Have to Be Permanent
Financial emigration is commonly misunderstood as an all-or-nothing decision. In practice, most high earners pursuing this path are not renouncing U.S. citizenship and cutting ties. They are:
- Obtaining a second passport through citizenship by investment, which takes 4–12 months and requires no change in primary residence
- Establishing legal residency abroad — Portugal D7 visa, Panama pensionado, and others — to qualify for the FEIE and reduce tax exposure
- Diversifying assets internationally — the 63% of Apex survey respondents doing this are not leaving; they are hedging
- Testing the waters with a 3–6 month stay under a digital nomad visa before committing to a full residency change
Nuri Katz put it plainly in his Fortune interview: “The sentiment starts somewhere — and then it turns into action over time. We are seeing that action now.” Before COVID, the percentage of Americans applying for second residences or citizenships was minimal. Now it is growing by hundreds of percentages annually.
Why the Trend Will Accelerate: Social Security, Federal Debt, and Property Taxes
Three structural forces make it difficult to argue the exit trend will reverse:
Social Security Insolvency Timeline
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, covered in detail by Fortune, projects the OASI Trust Fund reaches exhaustion in 2032 — one year sooner than last year’s estimate. At that point, an automatic 22% benefit cut would be forced on tens of millions of retirees. A couple retiring in 2033 faces an $18,400 annual reduction in benefits if Congress takes no action. Restoring solvency today would require either a 34% payroll tax increase or a 25% cut in total benefits. For high earners who have built retirement projections around Social Security as a baseline, this is a 6-year horizon that demands an updated plan.
Federal Debt and Dollar Risk
The U.S. national debt stood at $39 trillion and growing as of mid-2026. Katz’s view on the trajectory was direct in his Fortune interview: “There are only two ways to work out of that debt — printing more money and creating higher inflation, or default.” The Congressional Budget Office 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook projects continued structural deficits through 2036. The 63% of Apex survey respondents considering asset diversification outside U.S. markets are responding to a rational risk: heavy concentration in a single currency and a single fiscal trajectory.
Property Taxes and Housing Costs
Property taxes in major U.S. metros have risen sharply alongside home values, with no mechanism to reset even if a household’s income declines. A homeowner in the Bay Area, New York, or Chicago paying $18,000–$30,000 annually in property taxes carries a fixed cost floor that simply does not exist in most alternative markets. In Lisbon, annual property taxes on a comparable apartment run a fraction of that figure. In Medellin, property tax on a well-appointed apartment can be under $500 per year. For retirees and early retirees drawing down savings, that fixed-cost reduction is transformative.
Why Wealthy Americans Are Leaving the United States 2026 — And How to Run Your Own Exit Calculation
The question is not whether to leave — it is whether the math works for your specific situation. Here is how to run the numbers:
Step 1: Know Your True All-In Cost in the U.S.
Add up rent or mortgage plus property taxes, federal and state income taxes, health insurance premiums, out-of-pocket healthcare, and monthly living expenses. Most high earners are surprised by the total. For a $300K household in California, the all-in number often exceeds $200,000 annually before discretionary spending.
Step 2: Model a Target Jurisdiction
Pick two or three candidate countries and price out the actual monthly basket: rent, food, healthcare, transit, utilities. Use Numbeo or LivingCost.org for current data. Then model the tax impact: consult a cross-border CPA to estimate your U.S. tax liability under the FEIE, Foreign Tax Credit, and any applicable tax treaty with the target country.
Step 3: Quantify the Annual Delta
Subtract the target country’s total annual cost (including taxes owed to both countries) from your current U.S. annual cost. That delta is your baseline case for emigration. If it is positive — meaning you save money — the question becomes how much of that savings offsets the disruption cost of moving. For most $200K+ earners, first-year transition costs (legal fees, relocation, establishing banking) run $20,000–$50,000. If the annual savings exceeds $40,000, the breakeven is typically under two years.
Step 4: Separate the Financial Decision from the Lifestyle Decision
Financial emigration does not require you to love the destination country or relinquish your American identity. Many of the high earners in the Apex survey are considering a structure where they spend 4–6 months abroad to establish residency and tax benefits, then spend the balance of the year in the U.S. or traveling. Portugal’s Golden Visa requires just 7 days per year. Some Caribbean residency programs require even less. The exit does not have to be total to be financially meaningful.
The Apex Capital survey’s 61% figure is the headline, but the more important number is 68% — the share of high earners who put cost of living and taxes above politics as their primary motivation for why wealthy Americans are leaving the United States 2026. That number tells you this is a financial trend, not a political one. It will persist regardless of who controls Congress or the White House, because the structural drivers — rising costs, depleting trust funds, compounding federal debt, and a growing menu of credible alternatives abroad — are not responsive to electoral cycles. The Americans emigrating for cost of living are not making an emotional protest. They are doing the math. And the math, increasingly, points to the door.
Want to run your own exit calculation? Use our free tool to model the tax and cost-of-living delta between your current U.S. situation and your target destination.
